Earlier events :: 2013 :: STUDENT Talks

Predicting Shifts in Bioclimatic envelopes of Indian Biomes for 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2A climate scenarios

Presented by
Dina Rasquinha
National Center For Biological Sciences
Authors
Dina Rasquinha1, Mahesh Sankaran1 1 National Centre For Biological Sciences, Tifr, Bangalore Email:Dina.Rasquinha@Gmail.Com

Aim

The fate of terrestrial biological systems and the communities directly and indirectly dependent on them is uncertain in the light of global change. Climate wields a dominant control over the natural distribution of species. These dynamics provide a way to understand how communities and biomes will respond to global change. An attempt is made to understand the redistribution of biomes under future climate scenarios using a bioclimatic modelling approach.

Methods

The biome map of Olson et al. 2001 was used as the base layer for biomes and a total of 10 predictor variables (WorldClim) at 5arc-minutes were selected based on limiting conditions, annual and seasonal trends of temperature and precipitation. A linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was performed by training the model with variables under current climate and prediction of the model with future scenarios (A2 & B2A) to predict changes in the distribution of biomes.

Results

The projected changes for B2A scenario was much more benign than those observed for A2 scenario. Under the A2 scenario by 2050; most of the Moist forests were projected to be replaced by Dry forests (45%) and almost completely by Tropical savannas (99%) by 2080 .A decrease in the Desert, Temperate broadleaf, Flooded grasslands & Tropical Coniferous biome were observed across both the scenarios for 2050 and 2080

Conservation

By 2080, 91% of all grids will be Tropical Savannas implying loss of many biomes and the accompanying biodiversity and dependent livelihoods. Conservation strategies thus need to incorporate a cost-benefit framework involving communities using incentive based mechanisms like PES, REDD+ etc. Afforestation programmes should be administered considering the consequences of changed conditions (Planting drought resistance species in areas likely to become drier).