Predicting Shifts in Bioclimatic envelopes

Predicting Shifts in Bioclimatic envelopes of Indian Biomes for 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2A climate scenarios [/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row make_fullwidth=”on” custom_padding=”0|0px|11px|0px|false|false” _builder_version=”3.12.2″][et_pb_column type=”2_3″ _builder_version=”3.12.2″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.12.2″]

Presented by
Dina Rasquinha
National Center For Biological SciencesAuthors
Dina Rasquinha1, Mahesh Sankaran1 1 National Centre For Biological Sciences, Tifr, Bangalore Email:Dina.Rasquinha@Gmail.Com

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Aim

The fate of terrestrial biological systems and the communities directly and indirectly dependent on them is uncertain in the light of global change. Climate wields a dominant control over the natural distribution of species. These dynamics provide a way to understand how communities and biomes will respond to global change. An attempt is made to understand the redistribution of biomes under future climate scenarios using a bioclimatic modelling approach.

Methods

The biome map of Olson et al. 2001 was used as the base layer for biomes and a total of 10 predictor variables (WorldClim) at 5arc-minutes were selected based on limiting conditions, annual and seasonal trends of temperature and precipitation. A linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was performed by training the model with variables under current climate and prediction of the model with future scenarios (A2 & B2A) to predict changes in the distribution of biomes.

Results

The projected changes for B2A scenario was much more benign than those observed for A2 scenario. Under the A2 scenario by 2050; most of the Moist forests were projected to be replaced by Dry forests (45%) and almost completely by Tropical savannas (99%) by 2080 .A decrease in the Desert, Temperate broadleaf, Flooded grasslands & Tropical Coniferous biome were observed across both the scenarios for 2050 and 2080

Conservation

By 2080, 91% of all grids will be Tropical Savannas implying loss of many biomes and the accompanying biodiversity and dependent livelihoods. Conservation strategies thus need to incorporate a cost-benefit framework involving communities using incentive based mechanisms like PES, REDD+ etc. Afforestation programmes should be administered considering the consequences of changed conditions (Planting drought resistance species in areas likely to become drier).

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