Use of Predictioneer’s game model in predicting Indian policy outcomes: A case study of National Water Mission and Green India Mission
Pondicherry Central University
Shradha Shreejaya, Vijay Bhaskar, K.V. Devi Prasad
Introduction: What conservation problem or question does your study address?
The Government of India has strategized its further course of action to combat climate changes with its National Action Plan on Climate Change which are expected to reach its targets by the year 2020. The goals have been divided into in eight missions related to different aspects of natural resource management and adaptation strategies. To predict the possible policy outcomes of some of these missions, Predictioneer’s game has been employed and its results analyzed.
Methods: What were the main research methods you used?
The following methods were employed to identify the different stakeholders and give them the input values.1 Compilation of stakeholders:A list of the stakeholders was established after reviewing the mission documents, previous publications, newspaper articles and inputs from personal communication with other subject experts.2 Valuation of stakeholder:Logical Valuation:Parameters of veto and fixed positions of each stakeholder were evaluated with the help of available government policy documents and other available authentic literature. Scores were assigned based on careful evaluation of the on-document responsibilities, recent years of media documentation various issues, and literature on natural resource management in India.Scores for the various parameters are entered in the game software and simulations are run based on number of game rounds.
Results: What are your most important results?
The results are in the form of scores that indicate the influence, power and policy positions of various stakeholders with respect to their stand as well as in relation to the other stakeholders. The output generated by the software is in .csv format and gives a summary of player positions, round by round forecasts, pivotal coalition memberships, credible proposals and opportunities for proposals in every round.
Discussion: What are your important discussion points and what is the relevance of your results to conservation (if any)?
Based on the results and its interpretation, it can be thus concluded that the use of game theory in policy predictions could be a useful tool in policy analysis framework in India, considering the current orientation of most environmental policy research being mostly focused on impacts and outcomes of the course of the policy, and neglecting the role of players in itself. Validation of the predictions has been done by comparing status of most policies at present.